Site search
sponsored by
News
Sports
ENLARGE
A state appeals board has ruled that Douglas County overestimated its population growth forecast.
The Oregon Land Use Board of Appeals ruling could stall annexation plans by the city of Roseburg.
The board on Friday agreed with several arguments by a neighborhood group claiming that county planning officials overestimated how quickly the county population would grow over the next 20 years. Douglas County representatives meanwhile contend that the projections are in line with those used by state economic officials.
LUBA's action Friday was in response to an appeal filed in January by Roseburg resident Joseph Meyer on behalf of Sane, Orderly Development Inc.. The Charter Oaks group opposes annexation efforts in its neighborhood, off Troost Street west of Roseburg, as well as in other areas. The group maintains the Douglas County Planning Department's 2009 20-year population growth forecast should be lower. The forecast considered numbers for the county and its cities. In the final opinion, LUBA agreed with much of SOD's arguments.
The Charter Oaks group maintains that the county might have come up with more realistic numbers if planners hadn't depended on an outdated model completed in 1996 and adopted in 1999. The group also argued that the county should have been tipped off by the discrepancy between the county forecast and the one determined by the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, as well as by historic data. SOD stated the county violated a state law that dictates population forecasts must be based on “current, reliable and objective sources and verifiable factual information.”
Meyer's petition stated that the county's 1998 population projection for 2010, for example, was 125,670 — significantly more than the projection of 108,223 from the Center for Population Research and Census at Portland State University.
“We're pleased,” Meyer said of LUBA's decision. “The bottom line is LUBA agreed with us that (county officials) need to do their homework instead of using that model that history shows is inaccurate.”
Meanwhile, John Boyd, a senior planner for the Douglas County Planning Department, said he believes that the county's population projections are not unrealistic. Boyd said planners used a model updated with recent numbers and statistics. Planners also frequently consulted Oregon Office of Economic Analysis numbers, he said. The county's model to determine its population forecast, which is essentially a formula, gives a high and low estimate for population increase rates and the lower figures are very close to the OEA's numbers, he said.
During a previous round of projections, LUBA issued three rulings supporting the county's method of forecasting population. In this most recent ruling, the county will take LUBA's points and use them to make improvements to its practices, Boyd said.
“I understand that some may take this as a bad day for the county, but it really isn't,” he said. “My guess is that this process is only going to make it better. They'll have valid points and it'll only improve the validity of our model.”
Roseburg Community Development Director Brian Davis said LUBA's ruling means the city must delay adopting the county's population forecast. If the county's projected population growth rate for Roseburg goes down, he said, the city would assume less land is needed for urban expansion.
The population forecast is also used to determine the need for everything from infrastructure expansions to sewage and water treatment plants and roads, Boyd said. The numbers also can be used to help nonprofit social service groups secure more grants.
Inflated population increase rates could prompt county cities to expand their urban growth boundaries farther than is necessary, said SOD President Tom Hawksworth. An inflated urban growth boundary in Roseburg, for instance, could spell development in outlying city areas instead of taking advantage of existing available space within the city's core.
“There's a lot of land and space in the city that's going to waste,” he said.
Davis countered that Roseburg attempts to encourage development in areas such as its downtown.
“We're not looking at just urban expansion outward, we're trying to grow within our boundary as well,” he said.
• You can reach reporter Inka Bajandas at 957-4202 or by e-mail at ibajandas@nrtoday.com.
The Oregon Land Use Board of Appeals ruling could stall annexation plans by the city of Roseburg.
The board on Friday agreed with several arguments by a neighborhood group claiming that county planning officials overestimated how quickly the county population would grow over the next 20 years. Douglas County representatives meanwhile contend that the projections are in line with those used by state economic officials.
LUBA's action Friday was in response to an appeal filed in January by Roseburg resident Joseph Meyer on behalf of Sane, Orderly Development Inc.. The Charter Oaks group opposes annexation efforts in its neighborhood, off Troost Street west of Roseburg, as well as in other areas. The group maintains the Douglas County Planning Department's 2009 20-year population growth forecast should be lower. The forecast considered numbers for the county and its cities. In the final opinion, LUBA agreed with much of SOD's arguments.
The Charter Oaks group maintains that the county might have come up with more realistic numbers if planners hadn't depended on an outdated model completed in 1996 and adopted in 1999. The group also argued that the county should have been tipped off by the discrepancy between the county forecast and the one determined by the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, as well as by historic data. SOD stated the county violated a state law that dictates population forecasts must be based on “current, reliable and objective sources and verifiable factual information.”
Meyer's petition stated that the county's 1998 population projection for 2010, for example, was 125,670 — significantly more than the projection of 108,223 from the Center for Population Research and Census at Portland State University.
“We're pleased,” Meyer said of LUBA's decision. “The bottom line is LUBA agreed with us that (county officials) need to do their homework instead of using that model that history shows is inaccurate.”
Meanwhile, John Boyd, a senior planner for the Douglas County Planning Department, said he believes that the county's population projections are not unrealistic. Boyd said planners used a model updated with recent numbers and statistics. Planners also frequently consulted Oregon Office of Economic Analysis numbers, he said. The county's model to determine its population forecast, which is essentially a formula, gives a high and low estimate for population increase rates and the lower figures are very close to the OEA's numbers, he said.
During a previous round of projections, LUBA issued three rulings supporting the county's method of forecasting population. In this most recent ruling, the county will take LUBA's points and use them to make improvements to its practices, Boyd said.
“I understand that some may take this as a bad day for the county, but it really isn't,” he said. “My guess is that this process is only going to make it better. They'll have valid points and it'll only improve the validity of our model.”
Roseburg Community Development Director Brian Davis said LUBA's ruling means the city must delay adopting the county's population forecast. If the county's projected population growth rate for Roseburg goes down, he said, the city would assume less land is needed for urban expansion.
The population forecast is also used to determine the need for everything from infrastructure expansions to sewage and water treatment plants and roads, Boyd said. The numbers also can be used to help nonprofit social service groups secure more grants.
Inflated population increase rates could prompt county cities to expand their urban growth boundaries farther than is necessary, said SOD President Tom Hawksworth. An inflated urban growth boundary in Roseburg, for instance, could spell development in outlying city areas instead of taking advantage of existing available space within the city's core.
“There's a lot of land and space in the city that's going to waste,” he said.
Davis countered that Roseburg attempts to encourage development in areas such as its downtown.
“We're not looking at just urban expansion outward, we're trying to grow within our boundary as well,” he said.
• You can reach reporter Inka Bajandas at 957-4202 or by e-mail at ibajandas@nrtoday.com.
