Who won the election? If you answered, “President Obama,” you are right, of course. But if you answered, “Nate Silver,” you are right, too. Maybe even more so. Nate Silver accurately predicted the electoral outcome of precisely 50 of the 50 states (even better than his 49 out of 50 record in 2008). For Senate races, Silver was spot on with 35 of 35 in 2008, and 31 of 33 in 2012. Three errors in 168 tests. Maybe we should listen to him. In “The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t,” Nate Silver introduces …