COVID-19 update graphic

A new record of 38 new cases of COVID-19 were reported Saturday by the Douglas County COVID-19 Response Team.

Statewide cases broke the record set Friday, with 1,509 new cases reported on Saturday.

The new county cases bring the total since the pandemic’s beginning to 795. That’s 94 cases reported since Wednesday and 117 new cases since Tuesday.

All the new county cases reported Saturday were from positive test results.

Fifteen county residents are hospitalized from the illness, 14 locally and one out of the area.

No new local deaths were reported Saturday. Statewide, seven new deaths brought the state’s death toll to 819.

Among the seven was one 76-year-old Douglas County man who tested positive on Oct. 29 and died Nov. 19 at Mercy Medical Center. The man had underlying conditions. State and local officials sometimes report cases at different rates. This case appears to refer to a death the county reported on Thursday.

The other deaths the state reported included four people from Jackson County, one from Columbia County and one from Washington County. Their ages ranged from 75 to 86.

State and local public health officials urged citizens to take action to help slow the virus’ spread, by wearing masks, staying six feet from people outside their households, washing hands frequently and keeping social gatherings small.

The Douglas Public Health Network is supporting 717 people in either isolation or quarantine. Of those, 243 are COVID-19 cases and 474 people who have had close contact with an infected person.

Additionally, the county operates a COVID-19 hotline at 541-464-6550. It’s staffed from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. seven days per week.

Reporter Carisa Cegavske can be reached by email at ccegavske@nrtoday.com, or by phone at 541-957-4213.

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Senior Reporter

Carisa Cegavske is the senior reporter for The News-Review. She can be reached at ccegavske@nrtoday.com or 541-957-4213. Follow her on Twitter @carisa_cegavske

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(30) comments

Mike

Yesterday’s press release (below link) from our County Commissioners Coronavirus Response Team said;

“Today we wanted to talk about Church Gatherings…we wanted to let our citizens know that we currently have four churches that have active COVID-19 outbreaks…Additionally, we have sadly learned that a few of our recent local deaths were directly related to unprotected church gatherings.”

http://douglaspublichealthnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/11-23-2020-DCCRT-DAILY-UPDATE-COVID-19.pdf

This comes four days after these same County Commissioners issued a press release (below link) in opposition to new coronavirus restrictions saying,

“We cannot in good conscience condone citing or potentially arresting people for gathering with family to give thanks on Thanksgiving or for attending Church services.”

Clearly, enforcing coronavirus restrictions for churches is more bothersome to our County Commissioners’ “conscience” than people dying because our Commissioners refuse to enforce the restrictions for political reasons.

https://www.co.douglas.or.us/media_room/2020/11_november/11-19-20%20Douglas%20County%20Commissioners%20Issue%20Statement%20About%20Two%20Week%20Pause.pdf

Mike

15 new coronavirus cases and 2 deaths were reported today by the County Commissioners Coronavirus Response Team, bringing the totals to 822 cases and 17 deaths. Currently there are 20 Douglas County residents being hospitalized, the same number as yesterday. That means two more people have been hospitalized since yesterday because two people previously in the hospital passed away.

The Commissioners Response team announced it was a man and a woman that passed away. As proof our Commissioners condolences have become nothing more than a form letter, their press release first stated, “In the interest of privacy for the loved ones of these GENTLEMEN, no additional information will be released.” Then Commissioner Tim Freeman said, “we send our sincere condolences and prayers to the family, friends and neighbors of this beloved resident [singular],” as if only one person died and NOT two. It appears Commissioner Freeman just cut and pasted portions of the previous weeks’ condolences without bothering to proofread afterwards. How insincere.

According to the Commissioners Response Team, both people passed away in a Roseburg hospital, but unlike the Oregon Health Authority, the Response Team failed to identify the hospital was Mercy Medical Center. Beginning today, the Commissioner’s Response Team no longer provides the date deceased people tested positive.

It is worth noting our County Commissioners Response Team and the Oregon Health Authority have agreed on the sex of the 17 people who have died in Douglas County. However, there have been frequent differences between the two agencies in their description of the deceased peoples’ age, date deceased, date tested, date hospitalized, and location where they died. Only 2 have been described the same.

For the second day in a row, the Commissioners Response Team reported both 325 coronavirus cases and received 2,040 test results over the past two weeks in Douglas County. Dividing 325 cases by 2,040 test results gives Douglas County a 14-day positive test rate of 15.9% today, over three times the school re-opening metric maximum of 5.0%.

The 325 coronavirus cases over the past two weeks represent a 14-day case rate of 292.9 today for Douglas County, over five times the school re-opening metric maximum of 50.

The six counties surrounding Douglas County reported 184 new coronavirus cases today, and reported a RECORD 1,627 cases and 19 deaths over the past week.

The Oregon Health Authority for the second day reported 1,163 new coronavirus cases and 6 deaths today in Oregon. The 7-day positive test rate for Oregon set a new RECORD at 16.4% today. Douglas County’s 7-day positive test rate is 17.1% today.

CitizenJoe

Mike, the odds of have the identical numbers on two back-to-back days are pretty low. I would guess that "For the second day in a row, the Commissioners Response Team reported both 325 coronavirus cases and received 2,040 test results over the past two weeks in Douglas County," might reflect cut-and-paste at the reporting level. Or a day of zero, so that the two-week total stayed the same.

Mike

I agree. That's why I pointed it out. Another interesting anomaly is Douglas County number of new cases reported by the Commissioners Response Team today at noon EXACTLY matched the OHA number of new cases reported at 8:00 am. Those two haven't matched for months. Since county case numbers started going up, the Response Team's case numbers have always been greater than the cases reported by the OHA.

If the Commissioners had any class, they would apologize to the public and the families of the people who passed away for their numerous blunders.

Mike

It's a 14-day average. A day of zero doesn't explain it. The exact number of both cases (15) and tests (124) on the 15th day discarded from the 14-day average exactly matched the number of both new cases and tests added back to the 14-day average for today. It's noteworthy the ONLY other day the Response Team reported 124 test results was on June 30. Was it a coincidence? Possible.

CitizenJoe

Mike, the 325 cases and 2040 test results are not 14-day averages; they are 14-day sums. But, yes, the rest of your argument makes perfect sense; thanks.

mworden

Today's report was riddled with typos and other errors. To me, that indicates a new person was doing it or someone who was exhausted, and there was no proof-reader. I doubt very much if any of the commissioners act as proof readers. As a chronically bad typist who has had to make reports for others to read, I can have sympathy for cut-and-paste errors and typos.

We're facing big troubles ahead with college students traveling, family gatherings, and people defiantly refusing to take basic precautions. We have a lot to criticize and complain about. Let's not shoot the typist in the process.

Mike

I don't think I said anything about shooting a typist. I'm pretty sure I was pointing my comments directly at the Commissioners who didn't even bother showing the family of someone who died the respect they deserve by at least bothering to proof read a condolence paragraph being issued as a press release for all the public to read.

You and I will never agree that its OK for a condolence letter to be published as it was and without the Commissioners proof reading it. In my past line of work, I've had numerous people who worked for me who were killed or gravely injured. I would have been monumentally embarrassed and heartbroken if I had not made sure my expression of condolences to their friends and family was error free. It's as a sign of respect. It's a sincere expression you actually meant the condolences said. If they couldn't do it right, they shouldn't have said anything.

Speaking of respect, mine for you has diminished. Maybe the deaths you've witnessed during your healthcare profession has jaded you. Your advice fails to consider our Commissioners trivializing condolences for the public they were elected to protect is not much different than them trivializing the pandemic and the deaths they did little to prevent. And neither one of those was the fault of a typist. I'm tired of you lecturing me on what I can and can't, should or shouldn't write.

GhostofTMcCall

Mike -- I can see why you would attack me -- I've been very blunt in my assessment of your jihad against the Commissioners -- your casual lies -- taking statements out of context, your misuse of data, and your wild conspiracy theories. But, Mworden has bent over backwards to give you the benefit of the doubt I don't think you deserve. Is that really world you live in? Where you are right 100% of the time, the ends justify the means, and you need to attack everyone who doesn't agree with everything you say? That seems awfully narcissistic (please note: I'm unqualified to make a clinical mental health diagnosis). Because that sounds a lot like someone else I see in the national news a lot lately...but the name escapes me...

mworden

Oh, well, Mike. My respect for you is intact.

mworden

GhostofTom, it's very nice of you to see that I give Mike a lot of support. But I don't give him the benefit of the doubt. I doubt him very little. We disagree on some things, not on others. People see that I give Mike support, but maybe what they miss is that I critique him more than any other poster here. He generally takes it in stride and has been very decent about it. Maybe that's why people miss it.

I'm not one bit upset. I still support Mike's efforts to bring facts and figures to readers that we weren't getting before. He has a right to feel annoyed if I critique him on a regular basis. Which I do. He has shown emotional restraint and acceptance. I have no complaints about his interactions with me.

I do have a tendency to speak my mind -- repeatedly. It would be emotionally dishonest for me to get my shorts in a twist if/when other poster's express their annoyance with that. I have no problem with Mike or with you or with any of the other posters here (except for that one guy, but he disappeared.) If they have a problem with me for my critiques, well, that's to be expected. I can be a total PITA at times. No regrets on my part. I mean, c'mon, I am not always gentle. But I do try to view each person as a complex and mulit-layered individual. Nobody has to be perfect all the time to have my respect.

Mike

The Oregon Health Authority published their weekly school metric report (below link) this morning. Sherman County is the ONLY county in Oregon that currently meets the school reopening metrics of a case rate < 50 and a positive test rate < 5%. Douglas County isn’t close.

https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/DISEASESCONDITIONS/DISEASESAZ/Emerging%20Respitory%20Infections/Weekly-County-Metrics-2020-11-23.pdf

Be good

I would love to read an article about what the city leaders of each town are doing during this crisis. How are the city counsels of Roseburg, Sutherlin, Glide, Reedsport, etc. responding to this crisis? Larry Rich has been kinda quiet???

Mike

Douglas County suicides have actually gone down this year according to the Oregon Health Authority death statistics (below link) going back 20 years. In Fact, Douglas County is on track in 2020 to have its lowest number of suicides in 10 years.

Douglas County Suicides

--------------2020---2019---2018---2017---2016---2015---Avg

Jan-Feb-------5-------7--------5--------4--------5--------6-------5

Mar-Sep-----12-----25------18-------15------18------19------19

Jan-Dec Tot---------43-------31------26------30-------33 -----33

Douglas County’s suicide data is entirely contrary to repeated untruthful assertions by our County Commissioners, Dr. John Powell, Congressmen and our Senator that skipped meals, added stress, increased tension, increased unemployment and self-harm have led to increased suicides. They’ve always had access to the same data, but continue to not tell the truth to the public for their own political reasons.

https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/BirthDeathCertificates/VitalStatistics/death/Pages/index.aspx

Mike

I looked for, but couldn't find similar data about drug overdoses. Maybe someone can point me in the right direction.

mworden

A spike in drug deaths started several months before the pandemic, probably due to the addition of fentanyl to street drugs. Fentanyl is a cheap synthetic opiate that is 50-100 times stronger than morphine. Even a tiny bit too much can kill in minutes.

In January, Dr. Dannenhoffer was asking people who had friends and families who used street drugs to have Narcan on hand. Narcan can reverse an opiate overdose.

https://kpic.com/news/local/8-overdoses-in-douglas-county-this-year-have-public-health-officials-on-high-alert

In October, OHA reported a 70% increase in drug deaths in Spring of 2020 over Spring of 2019, but this was after the fentanyl crisis had begun. Seeing that the crisis began before the pandemic, it would be impossible, even intellectually dishonest, to attribute an increase in O.D.s to pandemic despair.

https://www.oregon.gov/oha/ERD/Pages/OHA-sees-70-percent-increase-in-Oregon-opioid-deaths-during-April-May.aspx

Mike

Just because it's impossible or intellectually dishonest won't prevent Dr. John Powell and our local elected officials from attributing an increase in O.D.s to pandemic despair. They did exactly that with Douglas County suicides.

mworden

Well, Mike, we're here to disagree, using evidence to support whatever unpopular ideas we may have if the facts and figures point in a direction other than the one seized upon by officials. And if the facts and figures show we're wrong, it's our job to accept that, too. Going by the evidence sometimes leads to surprises.

Mike

I believe science and data. It's Dr. Powell and our elected officials that are spouting lies exactly the opposite of what the data and science says.

Mike

Douglas County had 95 coronavirus deaths that have gone unreported in 2020 by the Commissioners Coronavirus Response Team. This is according to Oregon Health Authority monthly death statistics (below link) going back 20 years. OHA distinguishes homicide, unintended injury, suicide and natural deaths. The most recent monthly counts of “natural deaths” in 2020 are compared below with historical trends (from 2015 to 2019) in the below table.

------------------Natural Deaths-------------Avg

------------2015 to----------------------------Tests

--------------2019-------------------------------Per

---------------Avg-------2020----Delta-------Day

Jan-----------137-------132--------(5)---------0

Feb----------116-------122---------6----------0

Mar----------127------149--------22---------24

Apr-----------110------139--------29---------27

May----------116------140--------23---------55

Jun-----------110------114-------- 4----------73

Jul------------115------115---------0----------94

Aug------------96-------115--------19--------87

Sep-----------109------108--------(1)---------91

J-F Total------254-----254---------0

M-S Total----784-----879---------95

Douglas County natural deaths in January and February 2020 matched exactly the historical average before coronavirus reached Douglas County. That changed in March with the advent of coronavirus. Douglas County natural deaths increased significantly above historical averages in March when Coronavirus struck Douglas County. That was a time when postmortem testing was not being done due to their short supply.

https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/BirthDeathCertificates/VitalStatistics/death/Pages/index.aspx

Mike

Below is Douglas County’s coronavirus case number history. How long before deaths start following the same history?

Number-------------Days

of---------------------To

Cases----------------Reach

0 – 100---------------138

100 – 200-------------57

200 – 300-------------28

300 – 400-------------21

400 – 500--------------7

500 – 600--------------5

600 – 700------------- 5

700 – 800--------------4

Mike

Dr. Seuss wrote a new book titled, “How Trump Stole Christmas.”

Mike

Douglas County joins 9 other counties in Oregon that currently meet only 2 of 6 county public health indicators for coronavirus according to the Oregon Health Authority (below link). No counties meet less than 2 health indicators.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19#!/vizhome/OregonCOVID-19PublicHealthIndicators/COVID-19Burden

Mike

12 new coronavirus cases, 92 test results and 0 deaths that we know of were reported today by the County Commissioners Coronavirus Response Team, bringing the totals to 807 cases and 15 deaths. I say “deaths that we know of” because the Response Team often reports deaths days after they occurred and/or information about the person who died that is inaccurate and is NEVER corrected. In addition, deaths occurring on the weekend tend to get reported on Monday when the News-Review does not publish a paper. Similarly, Douglas County deaths don’t get reported to the Oregon Health Authority for up to a week after they occur.

The Commissioners Response Team reported 325 coronavirus cases and received 2,040 test results over the past two weeks in Douglas County. Dividing 325 cases by 2,040 test results gives Douglas County a 14-day positive test rate of 15.9% today, over three times the school re-opening metric maximum of 5.0%.

The 325 coronavirus cases over the past two weeks represent a 14-day case rate of 292.9 today for Douglas County, nearly six times the school re-opening metric maximum of 50.

The six counties surrounding Douglas County reported 205 new coronavirus cases today and reported a RECORD 1,565 cases and 20 deaths over the past week.

For the fifth day in a row, the Oregon Health Authority reported a RECORD 1,502 new coronavirus cases and 1 death today in Oregon. This is the fifth straight day Oregon new cases have been over 1,000. The 7-day positive test rate for Oregon also set a new RECORD at 16.1% today. Douglas County's 7-day positive test rate is 17.3%

Mike

The Roseburg Veterans Affairs reported 2 more new coronavirus cases since yesterday, bringing its total to of 83 coronavirus cases and 1 death according to VA nation website (below link).

https://www.accesstocare.va.gov/Healthcare/COVID19NationalSummary

CitizenJoe

It's going to get a bunch worse here. Probably not as bad as the Dakotas or El Paso:https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/d60468f386fa6681c5fdf55d2a6743aebab88fab/0_0_5806_3814/master/5806.jpg?width=940&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=c36b06ad7e4cfe4e19cb161ab7463cec

CitizenJoe

From an ER physician:

Craig Spencer MD MPH

@Craig_A_Spencer

·

10h

I’m spending Thanksgiving indoors with a lot of new people!!!

Because I’ll be working in the ER.

Even then - with PPE and COVID testing - the risk won’t be zero.

If you don’t need to travel, please don’t. There’s just no foolproof way to make holiday family meetups zero-risk.

Be good

If you are pro-life... it is time to prove it! Stay home and save lives! We must protect our elderly population!

TJ

[thumbup]

Be good

Since Douglas County is averaging one Covid death for every fifty three cases this is horrible news.

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